Scenario Planning - The History Of Scenario Planning

THE HISTORY OF SCENARIO PLANNING

Scenario planning was originally developed during the Cold War years as a way of considering what might happen in the event of a nuclear war. The approach caught on in the corporate world in the planning department at Royal Dutch/Shell. There, Pierre Wack and Ed Newland led a department consisting of managers from several different countries and disciplines to develop the new approach, which helped Shell respond to the oil crisis of 1973. Peter Schwartz, chairman and co-founder of the Global Business Network (GBN), was responsible for scenario planning while working at Royal Dutch/Shell from 1982 to 1986. He too was instrumental in the approach's development. Along with Jay Ogilvy, Lawrence Wilkinson, Stewart Brand, and Napier Collyns, Schwartz eventually formed GBN. According to GBN, the organization is "a community of individuals and organizations committed to thinking broadly and collaboratively about the future and to pioneering tools for organizational learning, planning, and innovation." Companies from many different industries pay handsomely to receive scenario-planning consultancy from GBN. Among them are American Express, Lucent Technologies, Nokia, Campbell Soup, Disney, Nissan, Rubbermaid, Procter & Gamble, and Sun Microsystems.