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Warren Buffett - THE SAGE'S STORY

An extremely high-profile investor with rare job qualifications in the late 1990s—expansive patience and discomfort with technology, despite his close friendship with Microsoft mogul Bill Gates—Warren Buffett's investment success in the final decades of the 20th century knew no peer or rival. Worth about $30 billion, Buffett is one of the world's richest men, second in the United States only to Gates, and one of the very few of his class to attain such fortune solely on the strength of stock investments. The chairman of Omaha, Nebraska-based Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett has been known to refer to his annual stockholders' meeting as a "Woodstock weekend for capitalists." Accordingly, the event draws investors from around the world who flock to hear his sermon. Buffett's awe-inspiring success and cult-like status spawned a potpourri of investment-related Web sites, magazine stories, and books, many offering advice on how to "invest like Warren Buffett." The fawning, sometimes almost worshipful attitude of some of Buffett's followers earned him the affectionate nickname, the "Sage of Omaha."

A standard story within the investment world perhaps best illustrates the reasoning behind the Buffett legend: if one invested just $10,000 into Berkshire Hathaway in 1965, when Buffett first assumed control, by the end of the century one would have turned that initial investment into $50 million. By way of comparison, if the same investor had sunk that $10,000 into the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index in 1965, by the end of 1999 it would have been worth less than $500,000. Thus it's easy to see why so much of the investment world strains to hear every word and scrutinize every move of Warren Buffett.

Equally famous as his astronomical investment success was his notorious sourness toward the new economy and dot-com mania. Buffett and his legions of followers are well known for eschewing the trendy and faddish in stock investment. Buffett in large part built his reputation by attracting like-minded investors, who were in it for the long term rather than for quick speculative profits. His method ignores macroeconomic trends and Wall-Street tips and wisdom, focusing instead on companies that boast significant market share and growth potential, but with low earnings and depressed valuation. In short, he looks for solid, strong companies that will put together sound earnings over the long term. The naysayers who view this strategy as quaint, or as a fossil of a bygone age in an era of tip-and rumor-based day trading, more often than not end up coming to see his moves as conventional market wisdom.

While his favored established firms' stocks tumbled in the late 1990s, the dot-com mania swept the markets, producing a surge of new investment hot-shots and poking holes in the aura of mystique that surrounded the Buffett legend. By 2000, however, dot-coms were in trouble, and once gain Buffett came out ahead of the pack. The question of whether or when the Internet players will build themselves into the kind of companies that Buffett, or the thousands upon thousands of would-be Buffetts, would choose as their investment vehicles remains to be seen.

THE SAGE'S STORY

Born in Omaha in 1933, Warren Edward Buffett showed a very early affinity for remembering and calculating numbers. According to a profile in the online magazine Salon, the young Buffett was marking the board at his father's brokerage and purchasing his first stock at age 11. Within three years, Buffett used his paper route savings to dive into real estate, purchasing 40 acres of farmland and leasing it to a tenant farmer.

He came across the highly regarded investment tome The Intelligent Investor, by Benjamin Graham, as a senior at the University of Nebraska, and was strongly influenced by the investment principles therein. Graham was a famous skeptic of Wall Street trends, encouraging so-called value investors to seek out "cigar butts"—those firms that Wall Street had all but abandoned but which could still be lit up for a few good puffs of stock activity. Buffett's first investment success came in 1951, when he threw $10,282 into the auto insurance firm Geico. Just a year later, he pulled out for $15,259. In 1952, the 21-year-old Buffett began offering his own classes on investing, selling his course via an advertisement in a local Omaha newspaper.

After a few years working and studying with Graham, Buffett began to feel constrained by the former's strict rules of value investment. Instead of picking up nearly lifeless companies cheaply, Buffett began to experiment with buying stocks of still vigorous but undervalued companies. In 1956 Buffett began an investment partnership on the seed money provided by himself, his sister, his neighbor, and his lawyer. The following year, a local couple who had attended his class invested $100,000 into the partnership. Buffett's earliest believers, known as the Berkshire Bunch, amassed enormous fortunes over the years by putting money behind the young investment guru's ideas. In Omaha alone, according to Forbes, more than 30 families accumulated at least $100 million in Berkshire Hathaway stock.

In 1962, Buffett began purchasing shares of Berkshire Hathaway, a struggling textile manufacturer in New Bedford, Massachusetts. Three years later he controlled the entire company. Berkshire's book value per share registered nearly 25 percent compound annual gains through the rest of the century, according to Credit Suisse First Boston Corp. By the end of the 1960s, finding good bargains few and far between, Buffett dissolved the investment partnership, returning his investors' money. From this point, he concentrated on Berkshire, which at first functioned primarily as a textile company with a small investment operation. Before long, however, investments were Berkshire's bread and butter and Buffett returned to his practice of picking up depressed companies. There were many such firms by the early and mid-1970s, after the 1960s stock rally gave out and inflation set in, making cheap stocks plentiful.

Buffett's bold moves and foresight helped him weather the tough economic climate of the late 1970s, and despite the tremendous market crash in 1987, Berkshire finished that year in much better shape than the year before. His head-scratching investments in companies such as Coca-Cola proved ingenious, with their brand-name recognition and untapped international potential. By 1993, Berkshire's $8.3 billion placed it at the very top of the Forbes 100 list.

Once viewed basically as an investment fund, acquisitions of insurance firms, such as Geico and General Reinsurance, through the 1990s transformed Berkshire Hathaway primarily into an insurance company in which the investment portfolio happened to be managed by one of the world's most famous investors. By the end of the 1990s, insurance accounted for more than 70 percent of Berkshire's revenues. Buffett came to believe that his company's greatest strength lay in purchasing companies outright rather than simply picking established stocks at the right stages of their valuations.

Buffett's attraction to the insurance industry was fairly logical. Since policyholders pay their premiums up front, while the firms pay out claims later, the company can be used as a strong investment catalyst. With a constant stream of revenue coming in, the insurers have a gap of time in which they have a good deal of money to invest before the claims are actually paid. This was Berkshire's strength, using the premium money to invest in Buffett's favored brands of under-valued stock.

His methods of investing and strategizing were extremely out of fashion and against the grain in the dot-com explosion of the late 1990s. The year 1999 saw Buffett's first down year in a decade, with Berkshire's per-share book value under-performing the S&P 500 index for the first time in 20 years. At the time, the judgmental pronounced his insistence on investing in firmly established, proven businesses out of date for the much-heralded, dot-com-heavy new economy. In 2000, however, Buffett appeared to have the last laugh, as reality weighed down the dot-com mania and the high-tech stock bubble burst. Buffett's portfolio, meanwhile, bounced back as investors ran to established companies, and once again pundits and analysts were praising the far-sighted wisdom of Buffett.

Buffett is a committed stickler for rigorous balance-sheet scrutiny, teasing out the elements that will produce long-term profitability. While he eyes technology stocks with a degree of skepticism, Internet stocks, at least as of the early 2000s, were almost completely off the menu for Buffett. Given his commitment to balance sheets and sound predictability, it's not difficult to ascertain why. Buffett refuses to throw money into a company unless he actually can visualize the company's numbers a decade or so down the road. With regards to the Internet, Buffett admits his vision is extremely cloudy at best.

FURTHER READING:

Atlas, Riva. "Warren Buffetted." Institutional Investor. January, 2000.

Bary, Andrew. "What's Wrong, Warren?" Barron's. December 27, 1999.

"For the Buffett Faithful, Time Paid Off." Forbes. October 12, 1998.

Kadleck, Daniel. "Berkshire's Buffett-ing." Time. October 25, 1999.

Kanter, Larry. "Salon Brilliant Careers: Warren Buffett." Salon.com . August 31, 1999. Available from www.salon.com people.

Kover, Amy. "Warren Buffett: Revivalist." Fortune. May 29, 2000.

Lenzer, Robert. "The Berkshire Bunch." Forbes. October 12, 1998.

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